Fuzzy reliability as a tool to estimate the technological and organizational solutions in construction projects

This paper presents a new framework for risk-based assessment of technological and organizational construction solutions using fuzzy reliability. In construction practice, there is a problem that often the actual duration and budget of the project is longer than the estimated figures at the design stage of the technological and organizational solution. In addition, individual construction activities during construction are affected by various risk factors, which can also increase the duration or budget of construction. At the same time, technological and organizational solutions and risks are often associated with the concept of reliability. Therefore, the authors analyzed various frameworks for assessing technological and organizational reliability in construction projects, identified strengths and weaknesses, and proposed a new approach to assessing technological and organizational reliability. In addition, the authors clarified the terms of serial and parallel systems used in the theory of reliability for technical systems taking into account the specifics of the construction process. This article presents an algorithm for fuzzy reliability assessment of technological and organizational solutions that considers the impact of risks on each work. The numerical example presented in this article allows us to evaluate the practical significance of the proposed assessment tool on the network model. The conclusion suggests further research and improvement of the proposed framework.