Socio-Economic Comparative Study for Lake Manzalah and the Existing State

The annual fish catch of Lake Manzalah, the most Fertile and largest natural lake in Egypt, in the thirties had been satisfying:34.2% of total fish demand in Egypt. But due to its nature (as any capture open industry, free entry, common property, the lake in the beginning of the new century had been deteriorating due mainly to spread of out-law intruders, encroachments, and several types of pollutions. Water area of the lake decreased from 3150km² to504km² now. Fish catch drastically dropped from 74 thousand tons in 2000 to about 37 thousand tons in 2007.National responsible parties were forced to interfere so as to rehabilitate the lake. An action plan (A.P) was formulated and executed from 2017 to 2022, NIOF research team highlighted its results, on the other hand some papers criticized the (A.P), the existing paper’s main goal is to its re-evaluation. Immediate aims are to estimate trend of fish catch and effort unit productivities in 2000 – 2021, to estimate each of allowable fish catch (Ymax) and effort (Fmax), to check the inter-relation of fishers’ aspects. Time-Series , bio- economic surplus models and contingency / Association factors will be utilized. The study revealed an uprising secular trend of total catch and unit productivities. Forecasting catches in 2022- 2025are about 80.5, 85.56, 91.1 and 97.2thousand tons respectively, which confirm better fishers’ income in mirco economic sense and optimistic levels in future macroeconomic. Estimated models of Schaffer was better than Fox model in static/socio and economic senses. It is suggested to maintain the existing levels of effort to 2.9 thousand boats and catch to about 76.4 thousand tons. The spread of illiteracy, fiscal indebtedness unawareness and middle age fishers have strong tendency effects to adoption of illegal methods. Some recommendations are suggested.