Impact of oil spills on mangrove ecosystem degradation in the Niger Delta using remote sensing and machine learning

Mangrove forests are vital to coastal protection, biodiversity support, and climate regulation. In the Niger Delta, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by oil spill incidents linked to intensive petroleum activities. This study investigates the extent of mangrove degradation between 1986 and 2022 in the lower Niger Delta, specifically the region between the San Bartolomeo and Imo Rivers, using remote sensing and machine learning. Landsat 5 TM (1986) and Landsat 8 OLI (2022) imagery were classified using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm. Classification accuracy was high, with overall accuracies of 98% (1986) and 99% (2022) and Kappa coefficients of 0.97 and 0.98. Healthy mangrove cover declined from 2804.37 km2 (58%) to 2509.18 km2 (52%), while degraded mangroves increased from 72.03 km2 (1%) to 327.35 km2 (7%), reflecting a 354.46% rise. Water bodies expanded by 101.17 km2 (5.61%), potentially due to dredging, erosion, and sea-level rise. Built-up areas declined from 131.85 km2 to 61.14 km2, possibly reflecting socio-environmental displacement. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square (χ2 = 1091.33, p < 0.001) and Kendall's Tau (τ = 1, p < 0.001), showed strong correlations between oil spills and mangrove degradation. From 2012 to 2022, over 21,914 barrels of oil were spilled, with only 38% recovered. Although paired t-tests and ANOVA results indicated no statistically significant changes at broad scales, localized ecological shifts remain severe. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrated environmental policies and restoration efforts to mitigate mangrove loss and enhance sustainability in the Niger Delta.