Economic Feasibility and Risk Analysis of Nile Tilapia Juveniles Reared in a Biofloc Technology System

To meet the growing demand for sustainable aquaculture, the biofloc technology (BFT) system has emerged as a promising solution, offering high productivity, improved water use efficiency, and enhanced environmental and biosecurity performance. Economic and risk analyses are essential tools for identifying the key technical and economic factors that determine the profitability and long-term sustainability of aquaculture systems. This study aimed to evaluate the economic feasibility and the risk associated with Nile tilapia juvenile production in a BFT system. Economic viability indicators were calculated using real data on capital investment, operational costs, and zootechnical performance from a production cycle. Scenario analyses were conducted to assess the effects of fluctuations in input prices and survival rates on overall economic outcomes. Stochastic simulations were also conducted to determine the probabilities of economic results. The items with the greatest impact on costs were the acquisition of the greenhouse and fingerlings, representing 27.64% of the initial investment and 33.24% of the operating cost, respectively. The BFT system showed a positive net margin and profitability per production cycle, with the exception of the pessimistic scenario. The risk analysis demonstrated that in 87.29% of the simulations resulted in a positive profit. Thus, the production of tilapia juveniles in a BFT system is an economically viable investment. However, its success is contingent upon specific technical and market conditions, underscoring the need for careful management and context-specific planning.