Prediction of Typical Power Plant Circulating Cooling Tower Blowdown Water Quality Based on Explicable Integrated Machine Learning

This paper establishes an explicable integrated machine learning model for predicting the discharge water quality in a circulating cooling water system of a power plant. The performance differences between three deep learning models, a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and traditional machine learning models, namely eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), were evaluated and compared. The TCN model has high fitting accuracy and low error in predicting ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and total phosphorus in the effluent of a circulating cooling tower. Compared to other traditional machine learning models, the TCN has a larger R2 (maximum 0.911) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE, minimum 0.158) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE, minimum 0.118), indicating the TCN has better feature extraction and fitting performance. Although the TCN takes additional time, it is generally less than 1 s, enabling the real-time prediction of drainage water quality. The main water quality indices have the greatest causal inference relationship with those of makeup water, followed by the concentration ratio, indicating that concentrations of ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, total nitrogen, and COD have a more decisive impact. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis further reveals that the concentration ratio has a weaker decisive impact on circulating cooling water drainage quality. The results of this study facilitate the optimization of industrial water resource management and offer a feasible technical pathway for water resource utilization in power plants.