Exploring the Main Driving Factors for Terrestrial Water Storage in China Using Explainable Machine Learning

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a critical component of the hydrological cycle and plays a key role in regional water resource management. The launch of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission in 2002 has provided precise measurements of TWS, enabling systematic investigations into its spatial pattern and driving mechanisms. However, a comprehensive evaluation of the spatial drivers of TWS variations across China is still lacking. In this study, we employed a robust machine learning model to capture the spatial patterns of TWS in China and further applied the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method to disentangle the individualized effects of hydroclimatic variables. Our findings reveal that precipitation is the dominant driver in northern and southern China, while soil moisture and snow water equivalent are key contributors on the Tibetan Plateau. In northwestern China, air pressure and groundwater runoff are the main influencing factors, whereas temperature shows a pronounced negative effect. Importantly, most variables demonstrate non-monotonic influences: in particular, we found that the importance of precipitation diminishes beyond a certain threshold, and surface pressure shifts sharply toward a negative impact. The explainable machine learning framework demonstrated strong adaptability in identifying complex drivers of TWS, offering a powerful methodological advancement for exploring TWS dynamics and providing valuable insights for water resource management in China.