Development of a Fire Risk Assessment Program for Submerged Tunnels

Submerged tunnels are an innovative infrastructure solution for connecting roads and railways, especially in areas where conventional bridge or overland tunnel construction is limited by deep waterways, narrow straits, or dense urban development. In such regions, submerged tunnels offer an efficient and less intrusive alternative that overcomes geographical constraints. However, unlike conventional ground-level or subsea tunnels, submerged tunnels have unique structural and environmental characteristics, which necessitate the development of a dedicated evaluation system for responding to fire and other disasters. In this study, a quantitative fire risk assessment program (SFT_QRA) was developed by reflecting the specific characteristics of submerged tunnels. The program was applied to both road and railway tunnels to obtain evaluation results. First, to more realistically reflect the fire risk within submerged tunnels, the latest statistical data were used to update fire occurrence probabilities and the proportion of vulnerable users. In addition, the optimal smoke control mode for structural stop zones in ultra-long tunnels was analyzed to derive strategies for establishing a safe evacuation environment. Second, an Excel VBA-based assessment program was developed to improve user convenience and was structured to enable fire analysis and evacuation simulations. Third, in order to verify the accuracy and reliability of the developed program, a comparative analysis was conducted against commercial quantitative risk assessment programs. As a result, the total risk error rate was 0.4% for road tunnels and within 5.0% for railway tunnels, showing similar levels of results. This study advances quantitative risk assessment methods by incorporating the unique features of submerged tunnels and implementing them in a validated program. Through this approach, it presents a practical solution that can contribute to the advancement of tunnel fire safety technologies and the overall enhancement of tunnel safety.