Analyzing the impact of oil imports on air pollution proxied by PM2.5 concentrations in China

Purpose The impact of oil imports on China’s PM2.5 concentrations has not been the subject of any research. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature. Beyond this contribution, the study also analyzes the influence of miscellaneous factors on PM2.5 concentrations in China for the period 2000–2020. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, we employ the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) econometric analysis methods to conduct comprehensive research. Findings The analysis results are summarized as follows: (1) The NARDL model shows that oil imports improve air quality by reducing PM2.5 concentrations in China. (2) Population density, economic development and energy intensity are key factors that increase PM2.5 concentrations, with (3) population density having the strongest impact. Finally, (4) the DCC indicates that these variables have time-varying effects. Originality/value This study highlights the importance of distinguishing between fossil fuels in terms of air quality in China, allowing us to determine that oil imports contribute to improving air quality, as does natural gas, another non-renewable energy source. As a result, the Chinese Government should reduce population density in vital areas, promote renewable energy sources and restrict the production of fossil resources instead of limiting oil imports.