Developing A System Dynamics Model for Water Resource Management in Urban Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Semarang City, Indonesia

This study investigated the challenges of ensuring sustainable access to clean water in Semarang City, Indonesia, with a focus on coastal areas, excessive groundwater extraction, distribution network leakage, and unique social conditions.A system dynamics model was developed to simulate various intervention scenarios, assessing the impacts of raw water reliability, leakage control, and industrial wastewater recycling.The novelty of this study lies in the comprehensive integration of these factors within an integrated modeling framework, enabling a holistic evaluation of future clean water availability under diverse policy interventions.The results indicate that, without significant intervention, Semarang City would face a significant water supply-demand gap by 2040.However, strategic investments in leakage control infrastructure and technologies, particularly under moderate and aggressive intervention scenarios, could achieve a water supply balance by 2039 and potentially generate a surplus by 2036.These findings emphasize the importance of technically and socially comprehensive water management strategies in ensuring long-term sustainability.This study provides a valuable decision-making framework for policymakers, offering actionable insights for the development of resilient and sustainable water resource management strategies in urban coastal areas.