Key drivers of the environment in the development of Tehran-Alborz urban complex

• Urbanization has led to new trends affecting the environment and disrupting conventional and desired environmental patterns. • Urban foresight targets better anticipation of the urban futures with flexible implementation that becomes integral to the plan in response to expected uncertainties. • Improving the environmental situation in Tehran-Alborz urban complex requires the performance of planners and officials in preserving and supporting the environment. Urbanization has led to the creation of macrotrends affecting the environment and the disruption of desired environmental patterns. In this regard, the driving forces, macro-trends, and uncertainties were identified in the Tehran-Alborz urban complex. The present research is a systematic effort to explain and rediscover possible futures in the environmental field in this urban complex with a holistic view. To identify the most important driving forces, macrotrends, and environmental uncertainties, a list was prepared based on research history and theoretical studies (including criteria, sub-criteria, and indicators). Then, data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario-building methods. According to the results, among the criteria, the highest importance coefficient was assigned to the "ecological" criterion, among the sub-criteria related to "water resources" and among the indicators, to "per capita water resource consumption". The results of the scenarios of the first to third groups in the Tehran-Alborz urban complex respectively express the desired and ideal state of the environment (55%), the intermediate and static state (35%), and the critical state of the environment (10%) in the development of this urban complex. In addition, the results of the macro-future scenarios in the future cone include "preferred futures" (first group scenario), "likely futures" (second group scenario), and "unreasonable futures" (third group scenario), the probability of each occurrence being predictable based on the results obtained. According to the analyses conducted, improving the environmental situation in the development of the Tehran-Alborz urban complex requires that planners and officials preserve and support the environment of this region, in a way that strives to preserve its valuable biological resources and improve its condition.