One Kazakhstan, multiple nations: on a growing regional divide amidst economic dynamism

Abstract This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the growing regional divide in Kazakhstan, examining the dimensions and implications of spatial inequality in a country that has experienced robust economic growth in recent decades. We employ convergence analysis, a Regional Development Trap Index, and a Regional Competitiveness Index to measure territorial inequalities across Kazakhstan. Our findings reveal that whilst the country has achieved relatively rapid aggregate economic growth, this has been accompanied by a widening territorial divide. Wealth and economic activities are becoming increasingly concentrated in major urban centres, such as Almaty and Astana, whilst other regions—particularly those in the south—continue to lag significantly behind. These results highlight an increasingly polarised nation, where certain regions benefit from economic dynamism and Kazakhstan’s international integration, whilst others remain trapped in low-growth equilibria. The article concludes by offering targeted policy recommendations aimed at promoting inclusive growth, enhancing regional competitiveness, and reducing spatial disparities throughout Kazakhstan.