Risks from fluctuations in cyclical climate oscillations in the face of climate change in northern Chile

Northern Chile faces significant challenges due to the interaction between cyclical climate events, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and climate change. Populations living in areas prone to climate variability must adapt to unstable and intense conditions. It is essential to design strategies based on historical data and predictive models to reduce the risks associated with the irregular alternation of seemingly periodic phases between El Niño and La Niña, which are expected to increase in duration and intensity due to climate change. During El Niño events, intense rains generate floods that impact cities, causing significant human and material losses. Northern Chile has recorded an increase in the frequency of these events over the last years. In cities such as Copiapó and Antofagasta, proximity to work centers and available land has led to settlements in areas vulnerable to floods. Floods also disrupt local ecosystems. The transport of sediments and mining tailings has altered river and coastal ecosystems, contaminating soil and water with metals. To address flood risks in this region, it is essential to implement comprehensive strategies involving infrastructure, technology, and governance to reduce risks and improve resilience to future extreme climate events. This work explores the impact of cyclical climate events on infrastructure, urban planning, and biodiversity, and proposes mitigation and adaptation strategies.