Analysis of Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Typical Chinese Regions Within the Indian Ocean and Pacific Monsoon Convergence Zone

With climate warming, the global precipitation patterns have undergone significant changes, which will profoundly impact flood–drought disaster regimes and socioeconomic development in key regions of human activity worldwide. The convergence zone of the Indian Ocean monsoon and Pacific monsoon in China covers most of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), which is located in the transitional area of the second and third steps of China’s terrain. Changes in precipitation patterns in this region will significantly impact flood and drought control in the MLRYR, as well as the socioeconomic development of the MLRYR Economic Belt. In this study, Huaihua area in China was selected as the study area to study the characteristics of regional precipitation change, and to analyze the evolution in the trends in annual precipitation, extreme precipitation events, and their spatiotemporal distribution, so as to provide a reference for the study of precipitation change patterns in the intersection zone. This study utilizes precipitation data from meteorological stations and the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) reanalysis data for the period 1979–2023 in Huaihua region. The spatiotemporal variation in precipitation in the study area was analyzed by using linear regression, the Mann–Kendall trend test, the moving average method, the Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test, wavelet analysis, and R/S analysis. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The annual precipitation in the study area is on the rise as a whole, the climate tendency rate is 9 mm/10 a, and the precipitation fluctuates greatly, showing an alternating change of “dry–wet–dry–wet”. (2) Wavelet analysis reveals that there are 28-year, 9-year, and 4-year main cycles in annual precipitation, and the precipitation patterns at different timescales are different. (3) The results of R/S analysis show that the future precipitation trend will continue to increase, with a strong long-term memory. (4) Extreme precipitation events generally show an upward trend, indicating that their intensity and frequency have increased. (5) Spatial distribution analysis shows that the precipitation in the study area is mainly concentrated in the northeast and south of Jingzhou and Tongdao, and the precipitation level in the west is lower. The comprehensive analysis shows that the annual precipitation in the study area is on the rise and has a certain periodic precipitation law. The spatial distribution is greatly affected by other factors and the distribution is uneven. Extreme precipitation events show an increasing trend, which may lead to increased flood risk in the region and downstream areas. In the future, it is necessary to strengthen countermeasures to reduce the impact of changes in precipitation patterns on local and downstream economic and social activities.