Livelihood security shocks and coping strategies in the drylands of Kenya and Uganda – a seasonal analysis

Recurrent shocks and crises cause significant threats to household livelihood security in dryland Sub-Saharan Africa. In absence of social protection and institutional support, households resort to potentially problematic coping strategies that could trap them in a vicious cycle of livelihood insecurity. This study employs a unique panel data set from 698 households in the drylands of the Karamoja border region of Uganda and Kenya, to assess variations in shocks experienced by households and evaluate coping strategies. Findings indicate that shock incidences are significantly higher in Uganda’s drylands compared to Kenya, particularly during wet seasons. The extent, direction, and significance of influence differ across countries and study locations. However, findings from the multivariate probit model suggest that households led by women, larger households, and those situated in Uganda's drylands are more susceptible and more likely to decrease their food consumption. Reducing food consumption, relying on savings, seeking assistance or loans, and selling livestock are commonly adopted strategies across all shock types. This study advocates strengthening social protection programs and agro-pastoral systems, and prioritizing climate-smart agricultural practices. Financial inclusion, access to extension services, organization of communities into beneficial groups and cooperatives, and human capital investment are recommended, with government and institutional support.