Unlocking the potential of foxtail millet: Spatial strategy and multiple benefits of expanding cultivation on marginal lands in China

In the context of Healthy China strategy, nutritious coarse grains are gaining more and more recognition. However, the current production of foxtail millet is insufficient and lack of spatial planning to meet the consumption demands outlined in the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents. This study aims to optimize foxtail millet cultivation by expanding production on marginal lands, ensuring staple food security while addressing agricultural transformation and improving public health in China. We analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in foxtail millet production in China from 2000 to 2020, using the GAEZ model to estimate its production potential. The model result was filtered using multivariate data to identify suitable regions for foxtail millet cultivation. The analysis revealed that foxtail millet cultivation is spatially concentrated in Hebei, Shanxi, eastern Inner Mongolia, and the northeastern provinces. The potential planting area for foxtail millet is 2.38 million hectares, capable of producing 9.92 million tons in the study area, which can meet dietary consumption needs according to Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents. Utilizing marginal lands for foxtail millet cultivation could save 50 % of water and more than 60 % of fertilizer compared to maize, while generating approximately ¥29 billion in revenue for farmers. This study highlights the multiple benefits of foxtail millet in reducing land and water resources burden, promoting health, and increasing farmers' income. The findings provide spatially explicit solutions for optimizing coarse grain production and reasonable utilizing marginal land resources. • We proposed a non-competitive with staple crops planting plan for foxtail millet. • Expanding foxtail millet production meets China's dietary guidelines requirement. • Planting foxtail millet in marginal lands of study area creates more economic revenue. • Expanding foxtail millet cultivation saves water resources compare to maize. • Foxtail millet cultivation provides multiple (economic, ecological, and health) gains.