Models of Variability of Locust Pest Number

The article presents the results of constructing factor models characterizing the relationship between the number of locust pests and meteorological factors (daily air temperature and daily precipitation amounts), taking into account the natural and climatic characteristics of the territory on the example of municipal districts of the Irkutsk region. Two solutions to the problem are proposed: the construction of a regression expression of the dependence of the effective feature on average air temperatures and precipitation amounts for June; definition of a regression expression with a calculation period in which the influence of factors on the effective feature is maximum. Algorithms using the Monte Carlo method are proposed to assess the adverse and favorable factors affecting the number of locust pests. The problem of probabilistic estimation of rare locust populations to determine high crop yield losses has been identified and solved. The models and algorithms have been tested on the materials of municipal districts located in different agro-landscape areas of the Irkutsk region.