Influence of Electric Heating on Forecasted Values of Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector

The article proposes a method for modeling daily schedules of electrical loads in the residential sector based on the theory of convolutions. Modeling is carried out to solve the problem of forecasting energy consumption in the residential sector. Two forecasts of energy consumption are presented, in the first of which apartments of urban houses connected to a centralized heating system act as consumers, and in the second — rural houses equipped with electric heating. The author compares the simulated graph with the actual energy consumption of the settlement. The effectiveness of using the proposed model to ensure forecasting with sufficient accuracy is demonstrated.