Research on the Identification of Electricity Market Collusive Behavior Based on SMOTE-GBDT Algorithm

With the advancement of power market reform in China, the establishment of an effective method for identifying violations in the power market has become a focus of attention in the industry. Effective strategies should be implemented to prevent market systemic risk promptly, increase market transparency, reduce the monopoly risk of market players, and stabilize the operation of the electricity market. The paper addresses the issue of collusive behavior in the power market. This study analyzes the issue of collusion in the electricity market and establishes a set of indicators for identifying collusive behaviors. It employs the SMOTE-GBDT algorithm to discern potential collusion among generating companies. Finally, an example analysis using spot market data from a specific region is conducted to validate the effectiveness of the SMOTE-GBDT algorithm in identifying collusion among electricity market participants.