Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production

Abstract. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are projected to increase in intensity globally, impacting human lives; infrastructure; and important agricultural activities, such as banana production. Banana production is already impacted by TCs in several parts of the world, leading to price volatility and impacted livelihoods of banana producers. While many potential impacts on banana production have already been quantified on a local scale, it remains unclear how bananas could be impacted by TCs across the globe under present and future climate conditions. To address this, we first looked at the documented impacts of TCs on banana production from different places all around the world. Using spatially explicit data on banana-producing regions and future TC occurrence and magnitude, we then identified the spatial distribution and extent of areas where TCs could impact banana production. Our results suggest that considerable portions of global banana production are at risk of being impacted by TCs under present and future climate conditions, and we show this for different return periods. Globally, 24.3 % of all banana-producing areas are projected to suffer major or complete (>84 %) damage under current climate conditions, increasing to 26.5 % under future climate scenarios at the 100-year wind speed return period. The regions experiencing the most notable increases in majorly damaged area under future conditions are the Caribbean (9.3 %), the Middle East and North Africa (36 %), and Southeast Asia (21.9 %). The most profound decreases in majorly damaged area are found in Central America (−35.8 %) and East Asia (−7.6 %). The most substantial change in completely damaged area is observed in East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania. Additionally, we estimate that 30.1 % of global production under current conditions and 31.1 % under future conditions will be majorly or completely damaged at the 100-year return period. The regions predominantly affected in the future are Asia and the Caribbean, potentially experiencing substantial disruption in banana production. Our results therefore indicate that considerable efforts in climate adaptation are essential to ensure the stability of global banana supply chains.