Interstate conflicts with multiple fronts

Abstract This paper analyzes an interstate-conflict model in which two states compete for supporters in the governance of a territory on two socioeconomically linked fronts: soft (for example, media persuasion, propaganda) and hard (for example, annexation, invasion). Supporters enjoy an ego premium when their ideological alignment on the soft front matches the outcome on the hard front. A state’s total gain from a conflict is the difference between the economic gains from the hard front and the cost of forming ideological preferences on the soft front. We propose four scenarios based on the relative size of the ego premium and provide intuition on how competition on the soft front becomes widespread. We explore the implications of the model in the context of the Russian–Ukrainian war.