Forecasting and Assessing the Impact of Direct Tax Risks on the Short-Term Financial Policy of a Russian Vertically Integrated Oil Company

Risk modeling and assessment are an integral part of companies' activities. This is especially important in the context of assessing the impact of various risks on the performance of Russian companies that account for a signification portion of state revenue in the country. In this regard, it is relevant to assess the impact of direct tax risks on the short-term financial policy of a vertically integrated oil company using the author's methodology. The proposed methodology is based on the use of the Monte Carlo probabilistic modeling method, the Prophet time series forecasting tool and financial analysis methods. At the first stage, time series forecasting is carried out for the parameters that determine the greatest variability in the amount of the mining tax. Next, the most likely outcomes for each parameter are modeled using the Monte Carlo probabilistic modeling method. At the third stage, considering the calculations obtained earlier, the amount of the mineral extraction tax for each time is calculated as part of the short-term financial policy of the vertically integrated oil company Gazprom Neft PJSC. At the fourth stage, the planned financial indicators of the company are calculated using trend analysis. At the final stage, the impact of tax risks on the short-term financial policy of the oil company is assessed by recalculating financial indicators. As a result, tax risks were modeled for Gazprom Neft in the short term, problems that would arise as a result of the implementation of these tax risks were identified, and recommendations were made on how to neutralize and mitigate them. According to the results of the analysis of the structure of the mining tax, it was observed that the most significant variability for it is set by the change in the price of Urals crude oil, the US dollar exchange rate, and the average price of an export alternative for diesel and gasoline fuels of class 5. The results also show that the integration of direct tax risk assessment into the short-term financial planning process makes it possible to not only minimize the negative impact of potential changes in the tax burden but also optimize internal cash flow management processes.