Exploring antimony material flow in the context of energy transition: A scenario-based analysis

Antimony is critical for clean energy technologies but is one of the scarcest mineral resources. The limitations of alternative materials, such as the deterioration of flame retardant polymers, increased foaming, and decreased quality of alternatives for photovoltaic glass, further exacerbate reliance on antimony. The diverse end uses of antimony result in its recycling being challenging. Furthermore, its accelerated demand is rapidly depleting its reserve. Therefore, the surging demand for antimony driven by the energy transition raises concerns regarding supply security and resource efficiency. The present study employed material flow analysis to examine global antimony flows from 2000 to 2050. It aims to evaluate how improved recycling strategies can reduce reliance on primary mining and enhance supply security under various energy transition scenarios. The results indicated significant demand growth, particularly for photovoltaic glass (13.8-fold growth) between 2010 and 2022, and that supply risks would persist owing to low recycling rates (8.5 %). The scenario analysis showed that increasing recycling rate would reduce dependence on primary mining. Additionally, recycling potential varied regionally, with countries in North America and the European Union being more self-sufficient and other countries relying heavily on primary supply, necessitating policy intervention and investment in collection systems. Collectively, our results show that enhanced recycling aligns with circular economic principles, mitigates resource depletion, and improves long-term supply security.