Novel approach of collapse pressure prediction for subsea pipelines with realistic corrosion defects

Corrosion defects represent a significant risk to the structural integrity and operational safety of subsea pipelines. Advances in inspection technologies enable precise characterization of these defects through detailed mapping of corroded zones. This work introduces a novel approach to evaluate the collapse of pipelines with realistic corrosion defects. The proposed method is based on mapping the corroded surface into equivalent sub-defects, allowing for a more accurate estimation of the collapse pressure. The effectiveness of this approach is validated through comparisons with finite element analysis (FEA) results and benchmarked against traditional semi-empirical methods based on maximum and average defect depths. The findings indicate that traditional methods yield excessively conservative predictions, exhibiting an approximately 68 % average relative error for 100 analyzed cases. In contrast, the novel approach significantly lowers this average relative error to 11.9 %. Furthermore, the standard deviation of the average error decreased from 20 % to approximately 7 %. These numbers demonstrate a substantial improvement in the precision and accuracy of the estimates considering the presented approach. Moreover, the strategy is highly computationally efficient, enabling the rapid analysis of numerous cases in a significantly shorter time. This makes it a valuable tool for pipeline shutdown decisions in the oil and gas industry. • Introduces a novel approach for evaluating the collapse pressure of pipelines with realistic corrosion defects. • Utilizes a sub-defect mapping approach to enhance the prediction of collapse pressure of pipes with realistic corrosion defects. • The novel approach improved accuracy by reducing conservatism from −68 % to −11 % compared to the traditional methods. • The novel approach improved accuracy, reducing the standard error from 20.37 % to 7.51 % compared to the traditional method. • Provides a practical and reliable tool for the integrity assessment of subsea pipelines in the oil and gas industry.