Comprehensive method for determining the primary deformation monitoring indicators of ship lock head based on monitoring data

This study presents a comprehensive methodology for establishing primary deformation monitoring indicators for lock heads based on measured deformation data. Recognizing lock heads as critical components in navigation structures, with their stability essential for safe operation, we developed a model that integrates statistical regression, small-probability methods, and deterministic modeling. First, we analyzed deformation factors, including water pressure, temperature, and time-dependent effects. Statistical regression and small-probability techniques provided preliminary indicators, while a hybrid model incorporating finite element analysis was employed to refine the indicators further. By applying envelope analysis across these models, a high-reliability monitoring threshold for horizontal deformation was determined. We validated this approach through a case study of a large-scale lock project, which demonstrated that observed displacements fell within the established thresholds, confirming the model’s applicability. This method not only enhances the reliability of deformation monitoring but also allows for timely updates, making it practical for long-term structural health monitoring. Future work will address seasonal temperature variation for further precision.