A Dynamic Three-Dimensional Evaluation Framework for CCUS Deployment in Coal-Fired Power Plants

Under the “dual-carbon” targets, the coal power industry faces significant challenges in low-carbon transition, with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies as a key solution for emission reduction and energy security. Existing evaluation methods lack comprehensive assessments of technical, economic, and environmental synergies. This study proposes a dynamic three-dimensional framework integrating technical, economic, and emission indicators. By using Monte Carlo simulation and K-means clustering, the framework captures technology degradation and market fluctuations. Results show compression energy consumption averages of 0.37 ± 0.07 GJ/tCO2, with capture rates above 94%, increasing the variability by 35%. Lifecycle costs can be reduced by 24% at carbon prices of 80–100 USD/tCO2 with optimal subsidies. Emission costs peak alongside carbon prices above 430 USD/t, suggesting the need for tiered carbon pricing and CAPEX subsidies. A cluster analysis divides CCUS into high-capture-high-energy, balanced, and low-efficiency types, supporting differentiated policies such as tiered carbon pricing and phased subsidy withdrawal. This research offers actionable insights to balance economic viability and carbon neutrality goals.