Risk-Driven Deferral of Distribution Transformer Investments in the E-Mobility Era

The recent increase in electric vehicles has introduced extra loads to existing distribution infrastructures. Residential charging solutions are one of the challenges that will be addressed in the e-mobility era. Traditionally, distribution system operators follow a conservative approach to ensure their customers have uninterruptable and high-quality access to electrical energy. Therefore, upgrading the grid infrastructure is not a new approach; however, the widespread distribution of EVs across the grid requires immediate infrastructure investments, necessitating a significant budget allocation. Therefore, this paper suggests a risk-driven distribution transformer investment deferral to gain time to plan and process investment decisions effectively. By focusing on overall and additional demand and not improbable peak scenarios, this study shows that one can delay infrastructure investments through sensible risk management without compromising grid reliability in the transition to widespread electric mobility.