Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2025-06-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2504482122
Citations
8
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
8.84

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article

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

Michael Wehner, Shannon Christiansen, Xueke Li, Michael Mann
8 citations
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Climate variability and models
8.84
article

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

Michael Wehner, Shannon Christiansen, Xueke Li, Michael Mann
article en
8 citations

Abstract

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 122(25)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US), University of Pennsylvania (US)
U.S. Department of Energy, University of Pennsylvania, Office of Science, School of Arts and Sciences, University of Pennsylvania, Biological and Environmental Research
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Climate variability and models
8.84
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Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century — Michael Wehner, Shannon Christiansen, et al. · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS