A Fluctuation Analysis of United State Dollar Price in the Philippines: A Stochastic White Noise Approach

Given the fluctuating trend in the United States Dollar (USD) exchange rate in the Philippines, a stochas-tic analysis employing a white noise framework was conducted to examine the daily USD price. This approach was utilized to characterize the statistical behavior of the exchange rate by computing the Mean Square Deviation (MSD) based on 11,205 daily data points spanning from January 1978 to July 2023. The resulting theoretical MSD was used to generate a Probability Density Function (PDF), which effectively describes the empirical distribution of the USD price fluctuations in the Philippine context.