Unleashing American Energy? Uncertainties in energy transition developments under a new Trump administration

The United States (U.S.) needs critical minerals if it wants to compete with China in low-carbon and military technologies. The country is, however, caught in a dual dynamic. It needs increased critical minerals supplies but also engages in aggressive policies aimed at dismantling federal support for low-carbon products as well as establishing foreign trade barriers. This article is informed by political ecology and political economy and addresses the perceptions of economic actors involved in the critical minerals sector during the first 100 days of Donald Trump's second presidency. The U.S. efforts to develop critical minerals have relied on a flurry of administrative and legal instruments. Despite an increased production of official policies and laws in the past 15 years, we find that the 2025 political transition spurred uncertainties. Though the domestic and international landscape remains unclear, a majority of actors within the U.S. critical minerals sector maintains a positive outlook on the impacts of the Trump presidency on their industry. They underline that the new administration is likely to streamline permitting processes and consolidate Federal financial support after the appointment of pro-business and pro-energy department heads. So far, however, the neo‐illiberal turn initiated under the Biden administration and turbocharged by the Trump administration under a blunt agenda alienating many communities and traditional foreign allies has failed to produce the expected results. • The U.S. has developed onshoring/reshoring strategies and friendshoring policies to secure supplies of critical minerals. • The administration is undoing green policies while streamlining critical minerals mining and promoting fossil fuels • Economic actors involved are polarized in their expectations about the impacts of a second Trump administration • While economic actors show uncertainty, the majority appear to expect a pro-business and pro-energy administration. • Tariffs, threats to the sovereignty of allies, and the suspension of foreign aid will negatively impact friendshoring.