Navigating the energy transition in the EU: Renewables, critical raw materials and emerging vulnerabilities

Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, along with intensified global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions, have highlighted the need to address both energy security and dependence on imported hydrocarbons. As countries transition toward more sustainable and resilient energy systems, conventional wisdom suggests that increasing renewable energy adoption enhances energy security for net energy importers. Within the European Union (EU) context and considering technological advancements, evolving climate policies, EU directives, climate initiatives, and UN COP agreements, we empirically examine this perspective. Contrary to the prevailing assumption that higher renewable energy output directly enhances energy security, our findings suggest that without simultaneously securing the supply of critical raw materials, renewables alone may not sufficiently address energy vulnerabilities. We examine the structural factors underlying this outcome and discuss the policy implications for achieving a secure green energy transition in the EU.