Effect of population aging and economic growth: evidence from the largest 15 countries

Purpose Since the 1990s, the pace of population aging has accelerated significantly, sparking concerns about its potential negative effects on economic growth. This study aims to shed some light on the impact of aging on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach To mitigate the risk of aggregation bias while capturing broader trends, this study examines the impact of aging on economic growth through the 15 largest global economies from 1991 to 2023. Both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and generalized method of moments (GMM) were employed for analysis. Findings The findings indicate that the relationship between population aging and economic growth varies across countries, highlighting the role of country-specific factors in shaping this dynamic. While concerns persist that an aging population may impede economic growth, our analysis does not find strong evidence of a consistent negative correlation. This suggests that the economic impact of demographic shifts is complex and may be mitigated by factors such as technological advancements and policy responses. From the stability test results, the long-term relationship remains stable for most of the countries analyzed. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the effects of aging on economic growth across the 15 largest global economies. Our findings on the impact of aging on economic growth diverge from many previous studies, suggesting a more balanced perspective that underscores the potential for sustainable economic performance even in aging societies.