Birth Intervals and Stunting in Bangladesh

This paper analyses the relation between birth intervals and stunting of under-five children in Bangladesh. The main novelty of this study compared to the existing literature is that we use an econometric panel data model that accounts for the birth interval's potential endogeneity and for potentially correlated unobserved heterogeneity in the stunting and birth interval equations. The model is estimated using data on 7,849 children under five of birth order two and higher in the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. We find that a ten percent increase in the preceding birth interval reduces the probability of stunting by 2.17 percentage points for an average observation, ceteris paribus. This effect is more than five times larger than the effect found with a standard model not accounting for endogeneity. Simulations of counterfactuals using the complete model show how household wealth, parental education, and regional differences drive birth intervals and stunting. For example, the estimated indirect regional effect on stunting through birth spacing moving from Dhaka to Sylhet is almost 5%-points. On the other hand, the direct effect (keeping birth intervals constant) is even larger: 12%-points. This leads to important conclusions for policies to bring down stunting by lengthening birth intervals. Keywords: Stunting, under-five, causality, birth intervals, Bangladesh