Ethnoreligious diversity and state-building: evidence from Pakistan’s tribal areas

Abstract Does ethnoreligious diversity lead to higher or lower support for a central state? In this study, we propose that the relationship between diversity and state-making depends on the degree of intergroup contact between different ethnoreligious groups, which varies with locally fractionalized and regionally segregated societies. We hypothesize that high intergroup contact in fractionalized localities contributes to intergroup noncooperation that increases demands for a wide range of state services. Low intergroup contact in regionally segregated societies, by contrast, magnifies fears of intergroup conflict, thus heightening specific demands for state protection. We test these conjectures using original large-N survey data from the tribal areas in Pakistan collected at the time of the region’s incorporation into Pakistani state in 2018. We find that local fractionalization correlates with higher support for state’s comprehensive provision of public goods, except for law enforcement. By contrast, regional segregation correlates with greater support for state law enforcement, but lower support for other state services. Tentative evidence supports the intergroup contact logic and its downstream effects on intergroup noncooperation and the threat of conflict. Overall, our findings suggest that fractionalization can foster comprehensive state-building, while segregation leads to the development of security-oriented states.