Identification of factors affecting purchasing power in dairy cattle farms

The aim of this study is to analyze the economic welfare and purchasing power changes of dairy cattle farms by using internal terms of trade index. In the study, for the period of January 2011 to December 2023, NITOT (Net Internal Terms of Trade Index) was calculated as the “Economic Welfare Indicator,” and INTOT (Income Internal Terms of Trade Index) was calculated as the “Purchasing Power Indicator,” using data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and the National Milk Council (USK). In the regression model, it was determined that a 1-unit increase in the independent variables—milk feed parity, milk premium support, monthly real raw milk prices, real feed prices, and the monthly milk production quantity index—resulted in increases of 36, 5.4, 0.28, 0.38, and 1.1 units, respectively, in the purchasing power of dairy cattle farms. In addition, in the regression model, the effects of COVID-19 and sectoral crises in 2014, 2018, and 2020 on the purchasing power index were analysed. As a result, it has been observed that Türkiye, which is located at the transition point of regional and global crises, needs to ensure self-sufficiency policies and price stability in order to minimise the impact of these crises on the agriculture and livestock sector. In this context, it is of great importance to provide adequate and timely support for the livestock sector in solving the structural problems in the sector.