Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land in Anhui Province

Rapid population growth, industrialization, and urbanization are driving an increasing demand for land in various industries, which is reducing the available cultivated land resources. This study used the Land-use Dynamic Degree Model and Geo-Detector to explore the spatial and temporal variations in cultivated land resources and the driving factors of cultivated land changes in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018, using data on cultivated land area and socio-economic indicators. The findings showed reductions in both the total cultivated land area and the per capita cultivated land area in Anhui Province from 2009 to 2018. Most prefecture-level cities experienced reductions in their cultivated land area, with only a few showing increases. All prefecture-level cities except Wuhu City showed decreasing trends in per capita cultivated land area. The changes in the cultivated land area in Anhui Province have been influenced by various socio-economic factors. The impacts of interaction factors were more significant than those of any single factor during the study period. Among these interaction factors, the regional economic structure, level of agricultural technology, state of agricultural production, status of rural development, condition of the rural labor force, and governmental investment and regulation were shown to be crucial and prioritized. These factors significantly contributed to the variations in cultivated land area within Anhui Province. Therefore, balancing the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land preservation, especially strictly implementing cultivated land protection policies, is significantly beneficial for achieving sustainable socio-economic development.