Foresight of the Marine Tourism Market in the Southern Coasts of Iran

The aim of the present study is to develop future scenarios for the marine tourism market in the southern coasts of Iran. This research is applied in purpose and descriptive-exploratory in nature. It employs a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including content analysis, cross-impact analysis, Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis, and the Schwartz method. The statistical population consists of experts from the private sector, government agencies, and academic institutions. Sampling was conducted purposefully and based on the principle of theoretical saturation. Initial drivers were identified through a review of the relevant literature and were then distributed among the experts via a semi-structured questionnaire. After finalizing the drivers, the MICMAC questionnaire was administered to the experts. Based on the MICMAC output, ten key drivers were identified. Subsequently, 24 probable states were defined for these key drivers with the input of the experts. A matrix was then designed based on the key drivers and completed by the experts using Scenario Wizard software, resulting in the generation of 5,148 possible scenarios. Ultimately, nine plausible and logical scenarios with high internal consistency (categorized into three groups: desirable, static, and critical) were selected by the researcher. The first group of scenarios (desirable) envisions the most optimistic futures for the marine tourism market in the provinces under study. If any of the static scenarios (second category) materialize, the development and advancement of marine tourism in the southern coasts of Iran should not be expected, due to the significant challenges embedded within each of the critical conditions present in these scenarios. Furthermore, the slow pace of progress inherent in static scenarios hinders the realization of projected goals for the future of marine tourism in the studied provinces. If any of the third-category (critical) scenarios were to occur in the future, no growth or development in the marine tourism sector in the target provinces should be anticipated.