Evaluating Sustainable Development Goal 15 Across Various Scenarios Using an Integrated Multi‐Objective Programming and Patch‐Generating Land Use Simulation Framework in the Internationally Significant Wetland of Momoge

ABSTRACT To support sustainable wetland management, this study simulated fine‐scale wetland patterns under four development scenarios for 2035, providing inputs for assessing ecological sustainability in the Momoge Nature Reserve, China. Specifically, future wetland patterns were modeled by an integrated multi‐objective programming and patch‐generating land use simulation framework. The resulting patterns were applied to calculate four Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15 indicators: 15.1.2, 15.3.1, 15.5.1, and 15.9. These were further integrated into a composite wetland ecological sustainability index. The results show that (1) the simulation framework has high accuracy in simulating land use in wetland protected areas. (2) The wetland area reached the highest under the wetland protection scenario, approaching the pristine wetland pattern in 1965, while under the natural increase scenario, it decreased the most by 10.5% due to urban and agricultural expansion. (3) SDGs 15.1.2, 15.5.1, and 15.9 performed the best under the wetland protection scenario and the worst under the natural increase scenario. SDG 15.3.1 improved in all scenarios but failed to meet the target for land degradation neutrality. It reached the lowest value of 5.64% under the harmonious development scenario, while the highest value of 13.86% occurred under the wetland protection scenario due to water body expansion. (4) By 2035, none of the scenarios achieved a high level of wetland ecological sustainability. The wetland protection scenario was assessed as moderate, while all others were classified as low. Localized SDG 15 indicators effectively revealed differences in sustainability outcomes across scenarios and provided insights for targeted wetland protection and management.