Future climate-driven fires may boost ocean productivity in the iron-limited North Atlantic
Rapid shifts in fire regimes affect the carbon cycle by releasing carbon and nutrients such as iron (Fe), potentially enhancing marine productivity and carbon export. Here we use fire emission projections and Earth system models to examine how climate-driven changes in fire emissions may alter soluble Fe (SFe) deposition and productivity. By century's end, climate change could increase Fe emissions from fires by 1.7-1.8 times beyond projections considering only direct human influences. Model projections show rising SFe deposition in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes under increasing socio-economic activity, potentially boosting the impact of SFe deposition on productivity in the Fe-limited North Atlantic by up to 20% annually (40% in summer), assuming stable macronutrient levels. However, declining macronutrient availability may shrink Fe-limited areas, where climate-driven fires could offset productivity losses by 7-8%. In the Southern Ocean, fossil fuel emissions primarily control SFe deposition, as reductions in anthropogenic fires counterbalance climate-driven increases.
Authors
- Sagar Rathod (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7170-4302)
- Carlos Pérez García‐Pando (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4456-0697)
- Douglas S. Hamilton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8171-5723)
- Stelios Myriokefalitakis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1541-7680)
- Marı́a Gonçalves Ageitos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3857-6403)
- Elisa Bergas‐Massó (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0205-0135)
Institutions
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ES)
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- North Carolina State University (US)
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES)
- National Observatory of Athens (GR)
- Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2025-06-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02356-4
- Citations
- 7
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 7.74
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- European Commission
- AXA Research Fund
- Generalitat de Catalunya
- Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
- Nuclear Safety and Security Commission
- Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
- Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation
- European Regional Development Fund
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación