Daily solar power prediction using machine learning: A model wise comparative study

Solar energy produced by photovoltaic panels is a vital energy source that offers numerous benefits to both the environment and society. However, meteorological variables such as solar irradiation, weather patterns, precipitation and climate conditions present significant challenges to seamless energy integration into the power grid. Accurate forecasting is essential to maintain supply-demand balance, optimize energy storage and ensure grid stability. This study leverages machine learning (ML) techniques to predict solar power generation and address renewable energy integration challenges. Nine ML models were employed, including linear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), random forest (RF), decision tree, gradient boosting machine (GBM), light gradient boosting (LGBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBM). Inputs such as irradiance, humidity, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and surface pressure were used to train these models. The model performances were evaluated using metrics like root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results highlighted ANN as the most effective model, achieving an RMSE of 274.84 kWh, MAE of 245.93 kWh and a MAPE of 5.26 %. This research contributes to the existing literature by addressing the relatively unexplored application of multiple machine learning models for predicting energy output from photovoltaic systems. A key novelty of this study is its ability to achieve accurate solar power forecasts using a limited dataset from a newly installed solar power plant, unlike many existing studies that rely on large volumes of data. Additionally, it explores the solar power production potential of Namakkal district in Tamil Nadu, India-a region with limited prior research.