Potentially Suitable Habitat for the Pest Histia rhodope Based on Its Host Plant Bischofia polycarpa and Climatic Factors in China

<i>Histia rhodope</i> is a defoliating pest that feeds mainly on the ornamental garden plant <i>Bischofia polycarpa</i>. Recently, frequent outbreaks of <i>H. rhodope</i> in Southern China have severely affected cityscapes and people's lives. To provide a predictive early-warning program for the spread risk of <i>H. rhodope</i> in China and reduce damage to <i>B. polycarpa,</i> we used the MaxEnt model to investigate the potentially suitable spread characteristics of <i>H. rhodope</i> and its host <i>B. polycarpa</i> under different climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitat of <i>H. rhodope</i> under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will reach an area of 3174.55 × 10³ km² in the 2070s, an increase of 1010 × 10³ km² from the current distribution. The potentially suitable habitat of <i>B. polycarpa</i> under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will reach 2618.01 × 10³ km² in the 2070s (an increase of 464 × 10³ km²). The potentially suitable habitats of <i>H. rhodope</i> and <i>B. polycarpa</i> are expected to shift to higher elevations under future climate scenarios. We also identified ten key environmental factors, of which Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (bio18) had the greatest influence on the probability of moth and host plant occurrence. Our results highlight the risk of further expansion of the potentially suitable area for <i>H. rhodope</i> and the important role of the host plant in this process, and provide a firm scientific basis for the monitoring and management of <i>H. rhodope</i> and <i>B. polycarpa</i>.