Machine Learning and Morphometric Analysis for Evaluating the Vulnerability of Tundra Landscapes to Thermokarst Hazards in the Lena Delta: A Case Study of Arga Island

Analyses of thermokarst hazard risk are becoming increasingly crucial in the context of global warming. A significant aspect of thermokarst research is the mapping of landscapes based on their vulnerability to thermokarst processes. The exponential growth of remote sensing data and the advent of novel techniques have paved the way for the creation of sophisticated techniques for the study of natural disasters, including thermokarst phenomena. This study applies machine learning techniques to assess the vulnerability of tundra landscapes to thermokarst by integrating supervised classification using random forest with morphometric analysis based on the Topography Position Index. We recognized that the thermokarst landscape with the greatest potential for future permafrost thawing occupies 20% of the study region. The thermokarst-affected terrains and water bodies located in the undegraded uplands account for 13% of the total area, while those in depressions and valleys account for 44%. A small part (6%) of the study region represents areas with stable terrains within depressions and valleys that underwent topographic alterations and are likely to maintain stability in the future. This approach enables big geodata-driven predictive modeling of permafrost hazards, improving thermokarst risk assessment. It highlights machine learning and Google Earth Engine’s potential for forecasting landscape transformations in vulnerable Arctic regions.