Challenges of conventional feature extraction techniques for multivariate time-bars assets
Abstract This study investigates the inherent limitations of conventional dimensionality reduction techniques when applied to time-bars financial datasets. Such datasets are characterized by low correlation, pronounced heteroscedasticity, and non-Gaussian return distributions—properties that often violate the assumptions underpinning traditional methods. Our empirical findings reveal that these techniques tend to exhibit inflated generalization performance on out-of-sample tests, yet fall short in generating interpretable signals for financial machine learning applications. To rigorously examine this issue, we evaluate 14 feature extraction models on time-bars asset data, focusing on their ability to produce robust informational signals. While the Denoising Autoencoder outperforms several competing methods with respect to covariance-based metrics, further statistical analysis indicates that false discoveries may compromise its apparent efficacy. Despite strong cross-validation results, we perform a portfolio optimization backtesting using features derived from both the original and reconstructed datasets within a defined market regime. The near-identical cumulative returns observed across both strategies reinforce our central hypothesis: the marginal utility of conventional feature extraction methods in financial contexts is limited, particularly when they are deployed without addressing the structural idiosyncrasies of financial data.
Authors
- Ahmed Ahmed Hesham Sedky (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8219-7681)
- Mohamed Kholief (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0043-6205)
- Ahmed E. Mansour Atwa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6292-6434)
Institutions
- Arab Academy for Science, Technology, and Maritime Transport (EG)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Data Science and Analytics
- Published
- 2025-06-13
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s41060-025-00824-w
- Primary Topic
- Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport