Understanding the influence of thermal properties and surface conditions on thermal modelling results at two permafrost sites

This study evaluates the thermal behavior of permafrost under varying surface boundary conditions at a specific site on the Yamal Peninsula, focusing on the impact of snow cover depth, wind speed, and soil thermal properties through one-dimensional thermal modeling. For comparison purposes, a site at the Hudson Bay Lowland with lower snow accumulation was also included to assess the influence of differing snow conditions on thermal dynamics. The analysis highlights the sensitivity of thermal models to surface condition measurements, emphasizing that even small errors in snow cover estimation can significantly affect simulated ground temperatures. While soil thermal properties remain influential, their impact is comparatively less pronounced than variations in snow cover. Results indicate that inaccuracies in snow cover measurements, particularly during atypical winters, can lead to substantial deviations in modeled thermal fields. These findings underscore the importance of refining surface condition measurements to enhance the reliability of thermal modeling in permafrost regions.