Agricultural and socioeconomic effects of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, China

• VRPs increased mean county-based GDP by 148% on the Loess Plateau. • VRPs increased mean county-based per capita grain production by 30% on the Loess Plateau. • VRPs decreased mean county-based labor resources by 11% on the Loess Plateau. • VRPs promoted population transfer from agriculture to secondary industries. • A maximum of 55% restoration area is recommended to maintain present grain production Although the vegetation restoration programs (VRPs) on the Loess Plateau, China, have significantly improved the region’s ecology, how the VRPs affected the economy and agriculture remains unclear. Here we used the difference-in-differences analysis to quantify the effects of the VRPs on population, economic, and agricultural aspects. Results suggest that the implementation of the VRPs increased mean county-based Gross Domestic Product by 148 % and per capita grain production by 30 %, but decreased rural labor resources by 11 %. The VRPs promoted the transfer of population to the secondary industry and increased the income of local farmers. We predict that grain production will likely start to decline when the restoration area exceeds approximately 55 % of the total county area in the future. Our study suggests that while VRPs on the Loess Plateau are economically sustainable, their expansion beyond a certain threshold could jeopardize agriculture.