Correlation Neglect on Social Media: Effects on Civil Service Applications in China

Abstract Social media, on which signals are often correlated, has become a primary source of information. How do people form beliefs when reading correlated signals online? In a field experiment on Weibo, we exposed Chinese college students to redundant negative posts about civil service jobs. Consequently, students developed a 0.16-standard-deviation higher negative view of these jobs and were 11% less likely to register for civil service exams, compared to the control group. We find the same effect in a supplemental online survey experiment, and the effect is moderated by attention. Our study demonstrates that correlation neglect can affect beliefs and real-life outcomes, including career choices.