Study on the Influence of the Number of Children on Parents’ Willingness to Have Three Children and Its Regulating Mechanism—Analysis Based on CGSS2021 Data

本文利用2021年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据，研究子女数量对父母三孩生育意愿的影响及其调节机制。研究发现，子女数量的增加显著提高了父母生育三孩的概率，且这种促进作用对于城市群体和女性更加显著。进一步的调节效应分析表明，同性子女、中西部地区增加了子女数量对三孩生育意愿的促进作用，而市场劳动状况和房产数量则对这种促进作用产生抑制效应，基于此，文章提出了相应的政策建议。Based on the data of Chinese General Social Survey in 2021, this paper studies the influence of the number of children on parents’ willing to have a third child and its regulation mechanism. The study found that, the increase in the number of children significantly increases the probability that parents will have a third child, and this promotion is more significant for urban groups and women. Further analysis of the moderating effect shows that same-sex children and Midwest area have increased the number of children to promote the fertility will of a third children, while the market labor situation and the number of properties have inhibited this promotion. Based on this, the article puts forward corresponding policy suggestions.