Solar Power Forecasting on Smart Micro Grid Using CNN-LSTM Ensemble Method

The use of solar Photovoltaic (PV) energy as an alternative renewable energy source has increased worldwide.Problems in solar PV systems are caused by intrinsic intermittency in solar radiation and other meteorological factors so the power generated from PV is uncertain and unstable.Therefore, a forecasting model using an Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach is needed to overcome the instability in the utilization of energy generated by solar PV, especially for distributed residential PV, which is operated and maintained independently.The purpose of this study is to develop an ensemble model on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) to provide predictions on the generation of energy in solar PV.Performance evaluation is carried out by comparing several forecasting models, namely Deep Neural Network (DNN), CNN, LSTM, and the proposed ensemble model using scenarios of three different input data combinations (S1, S2, S3).Based on the results of experiments and performance measurements, the model that is proposed to have very good overall performance, especially superior in the combination of {S1, S3}, {S2, S3} and {S1, S2, S3}.The combination of {S1, S3} gives the best results in this model, namely Mean Square Error (MSE) = 0.0934; Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.3057 better than LSTM.The combination of {S2, S3} with MSE = 0.1359; RMSE = 0.3687.The combination of {S1, S2, S3} is also quite good with MSE = 0.0951.