Can Southeast Asia's Tigers Break Free? The Connectivity, Constraints, and Recovery of the Region's Remaining Tiger Populations

ABSTRACT Southeast Asia's tigers ( Panthera tigris ) stand at the cross‐roads of recovery and ruin. While few populations remain, evidence of growth and dispersal in key sites necessitates an evaluation of broad‐scale recovery potential via habitat connectivity. We employ spatially‐synoptic modeling (movement from all source points to all potential destinations) to assess tiger population connectivity in 11 landscapes in relation to landscape configuration, broad‐scale recovery potential, vulnerabilities in habitat structure, and management priorities. We generate cumulative resistance kernels to quantify core areas of high predicted movement and areas of broader connectivity, ranking them by strength, extent, protected areas connected, and composite score. Sites along the Thai–Myanmar border had the highest overall rankings, with kernels of high strength and moderate extent, while Northern Myanmar sites were ranked highest by extent. Importantly, broad‐scale connectivity potential in the region was represented by only four contiguous core habitat patches within three landscapes of broad‐scale connectivity—the Dawna‐Tenasserim landscape (DTL), Upper Chindwin landscape (UCL), and Dong Phayayen‐Khao Yai forest complex (DPKY)—with the unique spatial configuration of each indicating distinct priorities for metapopulation management and recovery. Results reinforce the critical importance of DTL and potential for population spread from this site, but also highlight vulnerable points where connectivity and long‐term persistence may be undermined. UCL's expansive habitat is unrivaled in its potential for facilitating population expansion, though the status of this population remains uncertain. In contrast, DPKY's isolated habitat configuration represents a profound constraint to population spread, underscoring the importance of mitigating barriers to movement. Our study provides timely landscape‐ and region‐wide insight for the development of tiger conservation and recovery strategies as well as a quantitative basis for evaluations of landscape connectivity in this rapidly changing region.