COD Reduction Policies Promote the Low-Carbon Transformation of Industry in the Yellow River Basin—Empirical Study Based on the DID and Mediating Effect Model

在气候变暖与生态治理的压力下，黄河流域工业亟需绿色低碳转型。本研究以“十一五”COD减排政策为切入点，基于2008~2022年黄河流域9个省的面板数据，构建评价指标体系，并采用基准回归、稳健性检验、异质性分析和中介效应等方法展开研究。研究发现，COD减排政策抑制城市碳排放效果显著，该结论通过稳健性检验。政策在东部地区的影响更为突出。绿色技术创新在抑制碳排放中发挥关键中介作用。基于研究结论，建议强化政策协同与区域适配，完善绿色技术创新支持，补齐中西部转型短板，深化市场化激励，健全动态评估监管，推动黄河流域工业绿色低碳转型。Under the pressure of climate change and ecological governance, the industries in the Yellow River Basin urgently need to undergo green and low-carbon transformation. Taking the COD emission reduction policy during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period as the entry point, this study is based on the panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2022, constructs an evaluation index system and conducts the study by using research methods such as benchmark regression, robustness test, heterogeneity analysis and mediating effect analysis. The study finds that the COD emission reduction policy has a significant effect on suppressing urban carbon emissions, and the impact of the policy is more prominent in the eastern region, and this conclusion has passed the robustness test, with green technology innovation playing a crucial mediating role in carbon emission reduction. Based on the research conclusions, it is recommended to strengthen policy coordination and regional adaptation, improve the support for green technology innovation, make up for the transformation shortfalls in the central and western regions, deepen market-oriented incentives and establish a sound dynamic evaluation and supervision system, so as to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of industries in the Yellow River Basin.