Assessing the Sustainability of Timber Production Under Policy-Driven Logging: A Spatial Analysis from Southwestern Japan

Promoting nature-positive forestry requires sustainable timber production that aligns with ecosystem service (ES) conservation. However, Japan’s recently implemented top-down timber production policy may undermine sustainability in local forest landscapes. We assessed the spatial sustainability of plantation forestry by comparing actual logged areas (2000–2019) with allowable logging areas. Logged areas were identified using satellite imagery analysis, while allowable logging areas were estimated by excluding forests at high risk of landslides or with unclear ownership and dividing the remaining area by the standard logged age. While total logged area remained below the experience-based sustainable threshold, logging in profitable forests exceeded allowable levels in recent years. Forests with higher profitability experienced concentrated logging after 2015, indicating the strong influence of the national policy. This spatial imbalance threatens long-term sustainability by depleting productive forest patches while ignoring underutilized unprofitable forests. Our findings demonstrate the risks of uniform, production-oriented policies and highlight the need for adaptive, locally responsive forest governance. By integrating ecological and social constraints into spatial analysis, this study proposes a new sustainability measurement in line with nature-based solutions. Future forest policy must incorporate local knowledge and participatory decision-making to sustain forest ESs and timber supply under changing social and environmental conditions.